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GOP support for Terry Hayes grows amid new polling

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AUBURN, MAINE — Amid public polling that shows independent Terry Hayes drawing more support from registered Republicans and conservative independents, the Hayes for Maine campaign rolled out new endorsements and announced its Republicans and Conservatives for Hayes leadership team.

  • Al Bancroft, former President, AGC and major GOP donor (South Paris)
  • Mark and Angela Bancroft, Bancroft Contracting (South Paris)
  • Sen. Linda Baker, former GOP State Senator (Topsham)
  • Hon. Kerri Bickford, former GOP State Representative (Topsham)
  • Hon. David Cotta, former GOP State Representative (China)
  • Hon. Dean Cray, former GOP State Representative (Palmyra)
  • Hon. Gary Knight, former GOP State Representative (Livermore Falls)
  • Jim Howard, CEO of Priority Real Estate Group and LePage fundraiser (Topsham)
  • Sen. Sherry Huber, former GOP State Senator and candidate for Governor (Falmouth)
  • Jolene Lovejoy, former GOP candidate for the Maine House (Rumford)
  • Clare Payne, former GOP candidate for the Maine House (Holden)
  • Hon. Jethro Pease, former GOP State Representative (Morrill)
  • Miles Theeman, long-time economic and community development advocate (Bangor)
  • Hon. Windol Weaver, former GOP State Representative (York)

“Republican lawmakers twice nominated Terry Hayes to serve as Maine’s first independent State Treasurer,” noted Jethro Pease, who served with Hayes in the Maine House. “Terry Hayes is the only candidate who can unite Democrats and Republicans and restore bipartisanship in Augusta.”

The third consecutive poll this month in the Governor’s race shows Moody down 8-10 points behind Janet Mills. He was previously tied with Mills the first week in August. Moody took to Facebook earlier this week to claim that the multiple polls in the race, including Pan Atlantic’s polling, were “unverified.” Moody added that “nothing indicates our campaign is behind.”

Patrick Murphy’s Pan Atlantic Research has been conducting public opinion research in Maine since 1985. FiveThirtyEight has named Pan Atlantic the best Maine-based pollster for 2018. The Bangor Daily news has said that Pan Atlantic was, “the most accurate pollster on Maine’s 2010 gubernatorial race,” Maine’s last open gubernatorial contest.

“Data is stubborn,” said Hayes for Maine campaign manager Kyle Bailey. “Republicans have a choice either to unite with independents, third party voters, and reform-minded Democrats to elect State Treasurer Terry Hayes as Maine’s next Governor, or settle into life with Janet Mills in the Blaine House for eight years with, quite possibly, Democratic control of both houses of the Maine Legislature,” added Bailey, alluding to Maine’s 100 year political history of re-electing Governors to second terms.

POLLING SNAPSHOT

According to all polls released in October in the Governor’s race, Democrat Janet Mills has a near 10-point lead over Republican Shawn Moody. Polling shows Moody does not have a path to victory.

Mills Moody Hayes
Pan Atlantic/SMS 44.4% 35.9% 7.9%
Slingshot Strategies 41% 33% 10%


Source:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/maine/. A third poll by Change Research did not include Hayes as a candidate, but still had Mills with an 8% lead over Moody.

POLLING SUMMARY AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT

  • All three October polls show Janet Mills with a 8-10 point lead over Shawn Moody heading into Election Day, which is two weeks from tomorrow.
  • Maine’s outgoing Republican Governor is viewed unfavorably by 61% of voters.
  • Mainers believe that our state is on the wrong track (48%/38% wrong track) and our state’s economy is on the wrong track (42%/37% wrong track).
  • Mainers haven’t elected a Republican to succeed a Republican as Governor since 1952, when Maine was reliably Republican.
  • Current support for Terry Hayes comes from 9% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats, 11% of independents, and 31% of Libertarians and Greens.
  • In 1974, independent Jim Longley surged nearly 30 points in a matter of days to beat George Mitchell in the Governor’s race. In 2010, the independent candidate was polling at 11% on October 11th and surged to a near win, capturing 36% of the vote on Election Day.
  • Moody does not have a path to victory in this election, but Terry Hayes can win if fiscally responsible independents, Republicans, third party voters, and reform-minded Democrats unite to overtake Mills on Election Day.

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