St. John Valley Weather, Oct. 11-17, 2023

Joseph E. Becker, Special to The County
7 months ago

3-day Outlook: Wednesday, Oct. 11 – Friday, Oct. 13 

The upper-level low that has been nearly stationary along the Ontario/Quebec border will begin moving eastwards today. The system will then drift across Quebec Thursday and move into the Maritimes late week. This will keep showery conditions across the Valley for the period.

Today, mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog in the morning then scattered afternoon showers are expected. Chance for showers is 40 percent. Today’s high will be in the middle 50s. 

Tonight, scattered showers are expected with a low in the lower 40s and rainfall totals in the 0.01 to 0.09-range. Chance for showers is 50 percent. Light south/southeast winds are anticipated. Patchy fog will be possible after midnight.

Thursday, cloudy skies with a chance for showers in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon. Chance for precipitation is 70 percent. Rainfall totals less than one-tenth an inch expected. Thursday’s high will be in the mid-50s with southwest winds 0-5 mph. 

Thursday night, cloudy skies in the evening become mostly cloudy overnight. Showers are likely in the evening with a chance for showers after midnight. Chance for showers is 70 percent. Rainfall amounts between 1/10 and 1/4-inch are expected with a low in the lower 40s. Winds become northwest 5-10 mph overnight.

Friday, expect mostly cloudy skies in the morning then partly sunny skies in the afternoon. A chance of showers through the afternoon with less than 1/10-inch precipitation. Chance for showers is 50 percent. A high in the mid-50s with northwest winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. 

Friday night, mostly cloudy skies with a chance for isolated showers. Chance for showers is 20 percent. A low in the middle 40s with northwest winds 8-14 mph are expected.

4- to 7-day Outlook: Saturday, Oct. 14 – Tuesday, Oct. 17 

The upper-low will be over the Maritimes Saturday with circulation around it keeping mostly cloudy skies and breezy northwest winds across the Saint John Valley. Another area of low pressure will track across the Mid-Atlantic with some moisture from this system wrapping into the Maritimes low as they interact. The Maritimes low finally moves east into the Atlantic while the southern low tracks out-to-sea east of the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure will build down from the northwest heading into the new week with gradually drier, less showery conditions by Tuesday.

Saturday, expect mostly cloudy skies and breezy northwest winds and a chance for scattered afternoon showers. Chance for showers is 30 percent. A high in the mid-50s will be followed by a mostly cloudy night with a chance for scattered showers and a low in the mid-40s. Chance for showers is 30 percent.

Sunday, mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers in the morning and a 20 percent chance for showers in the afternoon/evening. Daytime highs reach the mid-50s. Sunday night, mostly cloudy skies with a chance for 30 percent chance for scattered showers. Overnight lows fall into the lower 40s.

Monday, mostly cloudy skies with a high in the mid-50s. Isolated to scattered showers are expected over the course of the day. Chance for showers is 30 percent. Monday night, partly cloudy skies with a chance for scattered showers and a low in the mid-30s are expected. Chance for showers is 30 percent.

Tuesday, partly cloudy to partly sunny skies with a 20 percent chance for isolated showers. The daytime high reaches the lower 50s. Tuesday night, partly cloudy skies with a low in the middle 30s are anticipated.

8- to 14-day Regional Trends: Wednesday, Oct. 18 – Tuesday, Oct. 24 

Above normal temperatures / Below normal precipitation 

Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check The County.me or the National Weather Service Caribou, ME at for weather updates with more current information for the Saint John Valley.

The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.