St. John Valley weather, July 5-11, 2023

Joseph E. Becker, Special to The County
11 months ago

3-Day Outlook: Wednesday, July 5-Friday, July 7

That amazing yellow orb being seen across the County this morning is known as the sun — an object that has not been seen very much in the last couple of weeks. High pressure will build in today and Thursday before moving east Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Cool air remaining aloft from the departing upper trough will bring a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the Valley today. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. Today’s high reaches the upper 80s with an overnight low in the lower 60s.

Thursday will be partly cloudy, warm, and humid with a high reaching the lower 90s. Heat-driven isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible with little precipitation expected except for some heavy downpours possible in storms. Thursday night, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with light south winds and a low in the middle 60s are expected.

Friday, partly cloudy skies in the morning become mostly cloudy in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with rainfall totals in the 0.10 to 0.25-inch range with higher amounts possible in any storms. Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night with lows dipping into the mid-60s once more.

For the upcoming weekend, NWS Caribou Hazardous Weather Outlook notes that “[s]howers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and possible gusty winds are possible late Friday afternoon into Friday evening especially northwest portions of the region. Other showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall may also occur over portions of the region every afternoon and evening from Saturday through Monday.”

Daily Summary

Today: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 88. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Calm wind.

Thursday: A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 93. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers between 7pm and 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A slight chance of showers before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 88. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

4-7 Day Outlook: Sat. July 8 – Tue. July 11

The period remains showery as upper-level troughs and an upper-level low in Canada affect the region’s weather next week. Additionally, models indicate an area of low pressure moving up from the Mid-Atlantic near the coast which could bring more rain to the region early next week. Based on present model data, showery/rainy conditions look to continue into mid-month before conditions start to improve as the North Atlantic Oscillation trends more neutral/positive by mid-July, which should help generate improving weather conditions for the region. The Arctic Oscillation has also been negative and like the NAO is trending more positive as the month progresses. A negative AO is associated with cooler air masses penetrating southwards in North America (producing cool, rainy weather in the warmer months).

Highs are expected in the mid-80s Saturday, the low 80s Sunday, the upper 70s Monday, and the mid-70s Tuesday. Overnight lows in the mid-60s Saturday and Sunday nights and the lower 60s Monday night. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday with a more widespread rainfall developing Tuesday afternoon, particularly if the coastal low mentioned above develops.

Daily Summary

Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

8-14 Day Trends: Wed. July 12 –  Tue. July 18 

Above normal temperatures / Above normal precipitation

Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.

The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.