St. John Valley weather, June 28-July 4, 2023

Joseph E. Becker, Special to The County
11 months ago

3-Day Outlook: Wednesday, June 28 -Friday, June 30

A stalled upper-level trough to the west over Quebec will continue to channel southerly moist air into the region producing another day of clouds and showers. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Once again, locally heavy downpours are possible. Tonight, cloudy skies with showers in the evening and a chance for showers overnight along with patchy fog is expected. Highs reach the mid-70s with overnight lows in the mid-60s. South winds 10-15 mph this afternoon may have gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Rainfall totals in the 1/10th-inch range or less except for higher totals in any storms that occur.

Thursday, the stalled frontal boundary remains to the west with cloudy skies and another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms with rainfall totals in the tenth to quarter-inch range. The stalled upper-trough finally moves to the east later Thursday into Friday with a chance for showers and fog overnight Thursday night with precipitation amounts in the tenth to quarter-inch range. Little change in the air mass with highs in the middle 70s with overnight temperatures in the lower 60s.

The upper-level trough slowly migrates eastward Friday followed by another upper-level trough this weekend. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies overspread the Valley Friday with showers likely along with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Rainfall totals less than 1/10th inch expected except in storms. High move into the upper 70s with a chance for showers Friday night and a low in the lower 60s.

Daily Summary

Today: Scattered showers before 3 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog before 10 a.m. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 4 a.m., then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog after 10 p.m. Low around 64. South wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog before 10 a.m. High near 75. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9 p.m., then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog after 10 p.m. Low around 61. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m. Areas of fog before 11 a.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 11 p.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

4- to 7-Day Outlook: Saturday, July 1-Tuesday, July 4

The Saint John Valley will be caught between high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure to the west which will maintain southerly moist flow into the region through the period. Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies and a chance for showers, especially in the afternoon along with isolated thunderstorms. An area of low pressure approaches Sunday and crosses the region Monday with showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms expected. For Independence Day, showers are likely under mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures range from the low 80s Saturday and the 70s Sunday trough Tuesday. Overnight lows fall into the lower 60s each day. 

Daily Summary

Saturday: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3 p.m. Areas of fog before 10 a.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog between 4 a.m. and 5 a.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.

Sunday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3 p.m. Patchy fog before 9 a.m. High near 76. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9 p.m., then showers likely. Patchy fog before 2 a.m. then patchy fog after 3 a.m. Low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.

Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Tuesday: Showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.

8- to 14-Day Trends: Wednesday, July 5 -Tuesday, July 11

Above normal temperatures / Above normal precipitation

Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.

The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.